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Could Antonelli have won the Italian GP without the VSC?

Kimi Antonelli faced a challenging start to his home Italian Grand Prix by qualifying 19th, a position necessitated by an engine penalty dictated by Mercedes' performance algorithms. Toto Wolff noted that these systems operate purely on data without regard for a driver's nationality. Despite the computer's prediction that a top-five finish was his ceiling, Antonelli defied the odds with a spectacular drive. Even after taking the lead on Lap 18, the team's initial tyre strategy suggested he would likely finish no higher than second place.
Could Antonelli have won the Italian GP without the VSC?
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